Study Finds Trump's Influence Largely Neutral on European Voting Patterns
Following Trump’s triumph in the 2025 U.S. presidential election, numerous political commentators and media organizations observed that this outcome might prompt a shift towards conservatism amongst European electorates. This was evident as conservative politicians and groups throughout Europe expressed enthusiasm over his success, interpreting it as validation for their positions regarding topics such as migration policies or environmental regulations, and anticipating increased support for their respective factions.
In contrast, following the announcement of tariffs on European imports on "Freedom Day," along with the contentious meeting between President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Trump, some thought this might have a detrimental impact on right-wing parties and potentially boost support for leftist groups.
However, according to recent research The analysis conducted by the Brussels-based think tank European Policy Centre — which examined polling data and political developments throughout Europe preceding and following Trump’s election — indicates that Trump is not influencing European voting behaviors whatsoever.
"At the electoral level, the EU maintains significant independence from the United States," stated Javier Carbonell, an expert affiliated with the EPC and a co-author of the study. "European voting behaviors are predominantly shaped by domestic elements and remain unaffected by shifts in American politics." However, this does not apply uniformly across all sectors; Mr. Carbonell noted that areas such as markets and technology regulation show stronger connections with U.S. trends. Nonetheless, he emphasized that "the policies of Trump have had no impact on changing voter inclinations within Europe.”
At the local level
Locally, the backing for political parties positioned to the right of the European People’s Party cluster exhibited minimal variation from October 2024 through April 2025, as per the research findings. In most nations like Austria, Germany, Spain, and Portugal, consistent voter support persisted throughout this period.
Several nations such as the Czech Republic, Poland, Hungary, and Italy exhibited consistent strong backing for right-wing groups; however, their levels of support remained steady over those months. In contrast, countries with less substantial far-right following—such as Sweden, Slovenia, Denmark, and Finland—also did not see notable shifts during this period.
However, Romania stood out as an exception to this generalization, according to the report's authors. They stated, "We did not incorporate it into our study’s database due to concerns about the accuracy of the electoral information after the annulment of the results," Carbonell explained, referencing Romania's contentious annulment of the 2024 presidential elections.
In general, throughout Europe, the average voter support for the more conservative parties remained at approximately 24-25%. This indicates that Trump's win did not significantly influence these regions locally.
At the same time, public sentiment has shifted away from Trump. A poll conducted by Le Grand Continent and Cluster 17 reveals that just 6% to 8% of Germans, Spaniards, and French view him as an "ally." Additionally, data from YouGov indicates that the US image dropped by 20 to 30 percentage points in nations such as Denmark, Sweden, Germany, and France. The report suggests this outcome was expected, arguing that Trump's economic strategies have negatively impacted constituencies typically supportive of conservative ideologies—such as cognac producers and winemakers in both France and Italy.
Making Europe Great Again?
Efforts to invoke Trump's rhetoric did not yield significant outcomes, as per the report. This includes events such as "Make Europe Great Again," a summit hosted by Spain’s Vox party in Madrid, or an interview between Elon Musk and AfD member Alice Weidel.
According to Carbonell, “These efforts were successful, yet they were countered.”
"Contrary to Canada, where Trump’s win influenced the revival of the Liberal Party and the downfall of the Conservatives, European electors base their decisions on domestic elements," Carbonell stated.
Our findings suggest that backing for right-wing and extreme-right groups within the European Union stems from domestic issues such as sluggish economic expansion, rising disparities, shifts in culture linked to immigration and diversity, and significant skepticism toward governmental institutions," stated Tabea Schaumann, an EPC associate and collaborator on this study. "Additionally, there's often resistance to progress in areas like environmental responsibility, gender equality, and inclusivity policies. Each nation presents distinct circumstances; take Spain, where tensions over territory involving Catalonia play a crucial role.